Martin Hawes: Where to for property values?

Debate is raging about the future of property prices. It is a debate that is being held online and in the pages of newspapers (including this one) and other media.

On one side is a group of people led by my fellow columnist Bernard Hickey, who says that property values still have a long way to fall (to as much as 30 per cent below last year's property peak).

On the other side are largely those in the industry with vested interests, who claim that confidence is returning and that the worst is over.

Which side is right? In my view the risk for property is all on the downside.

I would find it hard to say emphatically that property will fall by 30 per cent in value across the board; however, I do not think that values have yet finished falling.

In spite of what some might say, I do not think the slump is over.

In many respects the question, "Will property fall by 30 per cent?" is the wrong one. A better question is: "Is this a good time to buy?"

My answer remains the same as it has been all year: a resounding, "No - not yet!"

To read the full NZ Herald story click here

Posted: 22 Dec 2008

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